...MARIA NOW AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 5:00 PM EST Sat Sep 30 the center of Maria was located near 42.0, -43.9 with movement ENE at 32 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Maria
Sustained Wind Speed: 50 MPH
Location: Lon: -43.9 Lat: 42.0
Movement: ENE at 32 mph
Pressure: 991 mb : 29.26 Hg
[caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="600" ] Current Track of Post-Tropical Cyclone Maria [/caption]
[caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="600" ]Probability of Tropical Force Winds for Post-Tropical Cyclone Maria [/caption]
[caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="600" ]Probability of Post-Tropical Cyclone Force Winds for Post-Tropical Cyclone Maria [/caption]
[caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="600" ]Tropical Force Winds Arrival Time for Post-Tropical Cyclone Maria [/caption]
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
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At 500 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Maria
was located near latitude 42.0 North, longitude 43.9 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near
32 mph (52 km/h). Maria is forecast to continue moving toward
the east-northeast with an increase in forward speed through the
rest of the weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast, and Maria will likely dissipate on
Monday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.
IN DEPTH DISCUSSION
500 PM EST Sat Sep 30 2017
Active deep convection at the center of Maria appears to have ceased
this morning after the cyclone crossed a sharp SST gradient, and
SSTs below 23 deg C are unlikely to allow persistent convection to
redevelop. Recent visible satellite imagery and data from a late
arriving ASCAT pass at 1348 UTC indicate the presence of a sharp
wind shift extending from near the center of Maria well to the
northeast, suggesting that the cyclone has acquired frontal
characteristics. Based on this, Maria is now classified as
extratropical, and this is the last advisory.
The earlier ASCAT data was used as the basis for the initial
intensity of 45 kt. Maria has continued to move quickly toward the
east-northeast, and all of the models indicate that the
post-tropical cyclone will continue on this track for the next day
or two. Gradual weakening is anticipated until dissipation occurs
within a larger frontal zone over the North Atlantic in about 48
hours. The NHC forecast incorporates guidance from NOAA's Ocean
Prediction Center.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/2100Z 42.0N 43.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 01/0600Z 43.8N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 01/1800Z 46.4N 31.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 02/0600Z 48.9N 23.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED